financial times'ın yorumu: türkiye'nin kabusu güney sınırında gerçekleşiyor

Turkey’s nightmare
Turkey is watching its deepest fears become reality on its southern border. As Kurdish
forces take control of towns across north-east Syria, Ankara faces the possibility of an
autonomous Kurdish area emerging, in loose federation with adjacent Iraqi Kurdistan.
To the Turkish establishment, this is an existential threat: an embryonic Kurdish state
is bound to embolden Turkey’s 13m-plus Kurdish population in demands for regional
autonomy, and could try to claim chunks of Turkish territory. Worse, a powerful
element in a new coalition of Syria’s Kurdish groups is the PYD – an ally of the rebel
Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has waged a 27-year struggle against the
Turkish state. The PKK is now exploiting the situation, launching massed attacks, not
the usual scattered raids, on army posts in Turkey’s south-east.
Syria’s fracture is therefore exposing the faultlines in
Turkey’s society and the limits of its influence in the
region. The west should pay more attention to this side effect of the Assad regime’s
disintegration. It needs Turkey more than ever as a stable ally amid the chaos – and
looks to the ruling AK Party as an example of a mildly Islamist government steering a
secular democracy.
There is little Turkey can do to stop the Syrian quagmire deepening. Prime minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has implicitly threatened cross-border strikes if the PKK sets up
bases inside Syria. But there is no appetite for sustained military intervention. Nor has
a policy of befriending the Iraqi Kurds succeeded: it was Masoud Barzani, the KRG’s
president, who brokered the new coalition of Syria’s Kurds.
However, Ankara can and must do more to prevent an escalation of ethnic and sectarian
tensions.
At home, it must redouble efforts to address the grievances of Turkish Kurds. Mr
Erdogan must ensure that a rewrite of Turkey’s constitution enshrines cultural rights
for all citizens – and addresses the crucial question of regional devolution.
And in its foreign policy, Turkey must avoid being seen as a cheerleader for Sunnis
across the region. Its rivalry with Iran is already heating up. Arms sales to Bahrain
have not gone unnoticed, and Turkish Alevis are uneasy at what they see as partisan
support for the largely Sunni Syrian uprising. Ankara could act to alleviate these fears –
for example, by pressuring Syrian rebels to abstain from revenge attacks. If Turkey is
to be a force for stability, Mr Erdogan must show he can rise above sectarian divisions.